Operational weather forecast design
An operational high-resolution weather forecast for the North Sea is being designed at Uni Research Computing. We are downscaling the global ensemble prediction system from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to a horizontal grid spacing of 3 km in the North Sea with the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The forecasting system will be used to cut costs and improve safety of marine operations related to the offshore wind-energy sector, such as turbine installation and maintenance. To accommodate uncertainty on the smaller spatial scale of our WRF model grid, we are adding perturbations of the sea-surface temperature in the downscaling. These perturbations are designed to represent sea-surface temperature features which are not resolved by the large-scale ECMWF model. Their inclusion will improve the probabilistic forecast of key variables such as near-surface winds.
-Torge Lorenz, Uni Research Computing