High-end wind power forecasting
Aquiloz is a start-up wind power forecasting company specializing in short-term forecasting for wind farms that are operational. To this end Aquiloz has developed a state of the art software system for forecasting and commercial operation wind production assets for asset owners and managers. The Aquiloz system significantly outperforms existing forecasting service providers and can reduce forecast errors of wind power predictions by 20 - 25%. The product is in the autumn of 2014 in the phase of commercial roll out.
In 2014 work in NORCOWE of particular value to Aquiloz has been the work done on estimation of imbalance costs in in the UK grid. Power production and consumption happens instantaneously and the grid needs to be continuously balanced. The mechanism which ensures that the grid is always in balance is the Imbalance Market where owners of flexible power production assets make bids for making extra power available to the Transmission System Operators (TSO) for covering deviations from production or consumption plans submitted to the TSO. The bid prices from the asset owners operating in the market for imbalance forms the basis for Imbalance Price, which may be viewed as a fine for deviating from schedules submitted to the TSO. Wind power is an intermittent source of power and large imbalance costs are incurred by the owners and operators of wind farms.
Knowing the cost structure of the customer is important to Aquiloz in two ways, firstly, as a part of the sales effort where it is highly important to be able to demonstrate potential cost savings to the customer as a result of improved forecasting performance, secondly, for pricing purposes and positioning of a new product with superior forecasting skill, and lastly, for further development and improvements to the software. Further improvements may add extra costs to the customer and it is important to be able to estimate the marginal utility of improvements to the forecasting engine that drive up the costs of the customer. As such input from NORCOWE has been very important to the development of Aquiloz.
Please have a look at Geir-Arne Mos presentation "The imbalance cost of operating wind farms in the UK, and the impact on asset owner’s return on investment." held at this years Science Meets Industry in Bergen.